Presidential Predictions

Here's my $0.02 regarding the upcoming presidential elections, and the wonderful sea of crap the American public and thusly the world will have to deal with.

The two Democratic primary candidates, Clinton and Obama, are neck and neck in a contest for the presidential primary. On the Republican side, McCain has a pretty strong lead. For the Dem. primaries, delegates are assigned according to the proportion of votes, as opposed to the Rep's, who are winner-take-all.

See where this is going? I do. There's going to be fierce competition within the Democratic party, in the primaries more so than the actual presidential election itself. As a result of this, the party will not only have blown off most of its steam choosing a candidate, but will be internally split in half, and I'm sure there are those who hope that will reduce the voting power of the Dem. party to only those who voted for the winning primary candidate. This will give the impression that the Democratic party is internally divided, can't come together or even agree what it wants, and make the public feel like they aren't solidly founded enough to lead the country in these trying times.

The Republican party, however, due to their winner-take-all election style, will appear outwardly to be vastly in favor of one candidate, and thusly appear to be very focused, determined, and have a clear position on things. Whereas the Democrats will look like they're all over the place, the Republicans will look like they are all standing together, ready to face the challenges ahead. That's going to be tough to compete with.

It's all beautifully orchestrated. I mean, the Democrats have such great momentum right now, they could actually accomplish something, and instead what's happening is exactly what Republicans hope will happen. The Democrats are beating themselves.

It makes me wonder how deliberate this all is. The Rep's have the same old same old, and the Dem's have two novelties. I think either candidate is going to have to deal with a lot of criticism for running on the novelty ticket, especially from communities that value regularity and substance over show. Hillary is Old Washington through and through, and though she talks of things I really like to hear, I know it's shit because she answers to the same people Bush does. Obama's younger and doesn't appear to be the same breed, but he isn't addressing the same things that give Hillary appeal despite her position.

So, again, the same old things are going to happen, and it's brilliant on the part of the Republicans to sit back and let them happen. They just keep doing what they're doing, and let the Democrats make asses of themselves, literally and figuratively. Gotta hand it to them, hate them though I do; they're clever bastards.

Anyway, I predict that the Rep's will play the solidarity card and the Dem's will have to struggle not against the Rep's but against themselves in order to have a real shot at the election, despite whatever momentum they might have. Best of luck to them. I support Obama, in case you're interested. Actually, I supported Edwards before he dropped out, but he represents what I feel far too much to be a viable candidate and I knew he'd lose out. Obama is the next closest.